Define the decision after the prediction
Specify who receives the signal, what action follows and how much time is available. If the process cannot respond, even an accurate model creates no value.
The target event must be unambiguous and measurable.
Check history without future leakage
Features must exist at prediction time. Fields created after the event produce impressive but unusable results.
- History depth
- Definition stability
- Event frequency
- Feature availability over time
Plan a controlled pilot
Compare the model with the current rule or expert decision, then test impact on a bounded group. Track missed and false signals separately.
This evaluates operational value, not accuracy alone.